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Human-Caused Climate Change - Is the Debate Over?

Tuesday, January 09, 2007
We've been hearing a lot about in the last year from the left that "The debate is over. Climate change is happening, and it is being caused by humans." Predictably, there is much hue and cry from skeptics that this is simply self-fulfilling prophecy that attempts to stop further questioning.(Click title to read more...)

I think we shouldn't get sidetracked into a discussion whether the debate is over or not. It's a very subjective statement. Obviously, "the debate is over" does not mean that everyone agrees. Some people fervently deny that the earth is more than 6000 years old, and we are either misinterpreting the dinosaur evidence, or maybe they lived at the same time is early humans. Does that mean that the scientific debate about the various ages of the earth (Jurassic, etc.) is not yet over? What about people who doubt that the earth is round? That the earth revolves around the sun? That apartheid was bad? (Yes, getting away from science now.) That the holocaust happened? Are those debates still "open"?

So, "the debate is over" does not mean that there are no more dissenters at all. Should we then define it as saying that some threshold percentage of believers has been reached, maybe a majority? But on a scientific question, that quickly morphs into a debate about whose opinion matters. A researcher whose educational background is not actually science but happens to be working on the issue anyway? Those people exist. Someone whose educational background is scientific, but in another area of science? They exist too. Does it matter who is paying them? In some cases, undoubtedly. We could come up with any percentage depending on whose opinion we count as mattering.

I think it's really a political question. In fact, I'm not a rhetorician, but I'd wager this is a standard rhetorical device, to just proclaim that everyone agrees with you. It may be true that in different countries, one side or the other has captured the majority of public opinion, or even scientific opinion, and maybe one opinion does prevail in the majority of countries. So maybe you could say that "the debate is over" in certain countries. The reality for the United States, for better or worse, is that the debate is still not over, at least in a political sense. I think those who want it to be "more over", from one point of the view or the other, would better spend their time continuing to convince than to argue about whether it's over or not.

A few thoughts on scientific certainty: Science consists of facts and theories. Facts are merely the observed phenomena, theories are the potential explanations. Theories are strengthened or weakened depending on how well they agree with the facts, as shown by experimentation over time, but theories never, ever turn into fact. Gravitation is still just a theory. Newtonian physics was a fairly well-accepted theory until Einstein. Theories are always being modified or even replaced. When it comes down to it, all theories are just stories we've made up to explain the facts, and science is merely the methodology to compare the validity of competing theories.

Some people seem to unrealistically expect a theory to be "correct" in a way that can be proven beyond the shadow of a doubt. I think that's a fundamental misunderstanding of science. Almost every theory now in existance has some facts which are not explained by the theory, and those that don't, no doubt someday will. The existance of facts that don't fit the theory of course means that the theory needs at least some refinement. It may or may not mean that the theory is flat-out wrong. Yet that's the conclusion that some, armed with conflicting facts, want to jump to.

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Monitering Home Energy Use

Sunday, March 19, 2006
I'm reading the book "The Weather Makers" by Tim Flannery, a well-written book on climate change which also addresses the supply problems of oil, gas, and coal. In the back (which I skipped to!) is a "things you can do" list, most of which we know about, but it's useful to have it listed all at once and with estimated relative impact.

So what it got me thinking is that a good way to get started is to have some way to monitor your home energy use at a finer level of detail than just the monthly aggregate use from your utilities bill. I'm thinking down to the level of "how many watts per minute does my computer use?" or "how much oil do I use per minute to heat the water for my shower?" or "Is it more economical to wash dishes by hand or use a dishwasher?"(Click title to read more...)

I can see two possible ways to approach finding this out. One way would be to research it for all your appliances and other energy users. This sounds like a heckuva lot of work, and not guarenteed to be complete accurate in your situation anyway. I think the better way would be if some kind of devices were available to monitor your usage at a very fine level of detail, like each minute or something.

Whichever way you do it, there are numerous advantages. Number one, this would give you an idea of your biggest current areas of usage, and thus what reduction actions could have the biggest impact. Secondly, when you do take actions to improve, the results are easily and prompty measurable, which is important to any improvement process. Related to that is the well-known management theory that anything measured natually tends to improve, simply because you are paying more attention.

So, how to do this? Well, a quick Google search on "electricity use monitor device" turned up this handy little $140 device for measuring electrical usage. It connects to your circuit box and transmits usage data wirelessly to a little LED panel which you can carry around with you. It displays real time kW usage as well as totals by hour, day, or billing period, dollar cost in the same increments, and will even notify you if your usage exceeds certain limits you can program in! Way cool!

So if you want to find out how much electricity a certain appliance consumes, just measure the usage for a few minutes without that appliance turned on, then turn it on and subtract the two numbers!

I haven't yet found a similar device to monitor my fuel oil, mostly because I can't figure out how to Google it without getting results for monitor heaters! smile Maybe someone else knows and can let me know. Maybe the furnace guy would know!

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